Market in deep red again

After yesterday's modest gain, market is in deep red again. Nifty breached 4900 mark. Once again it is the Europe worry. With IMF expressing their concern on Spanish economic situation yesterday, this was kind of expected. The situation worsened by the rising tensions in Korea.

Only 5 shares in Nifty are in green; and Suzlon is one of them! That is surprising, I would say; Even considering the fact it had been badly battered over the last few days (who was not?).

All reliance shares like RIL, Reliance Communications, Reliance Power, Reliance Infra, which gained close to 10% yesterday driven by Ambani brothers patch up news, are in deep red again today.

All sectors and almost all shares have been battered. Only pharma is looking marginally better with Sun Pharma, Ranbaxy in green.

But the market is currently a no go zone for the investors. Just hold on to your cash and sit through this fall till the market settles down somewhere at a much lower level. And have a close watch on eurozone news and on global market indicies.

May be traders can make some quick money in this market from short positions; but clearly this is a wait and watch for investors.

Market lacks confidence

The Eurozone crisis has not abated despite the trillion Euro rescue package. And this is hurting the markets all over the world.

While the Euro is hitting new lows everyday, all markets in the world are responding nervously. India is no exception. And there have been some net FII outflow last week. Nifty is trading bellow 5000 as a result.

Eurozone turmoil will be here for some time; though the bail out package will start having effects in a short while. However, the reaction to Obama's Wall Street reform bill was completely unnecessary. The bill is very much needed and is a right thing to do. It will encourage sensible longterm investments and safeguard against reckless trading or pure fraud like Goldman Sachs. This is indeed needed for healthy markets.

So there is absolutely no reason why the markets should respond so negatively across the world. And I think this effect will quickly die down this week. However, the Eurozone debt crisis will continue to create pressure.

So probably Sensex will trade in a lower range this week with slightly positive bias.

Sectors that are looking good are banking, pharma and may be, to some extent, auto. Metals are falling in a bottomless pit. I have no idea when will that end. Energy, cement are looking volatile. Technology was very weak last week, may perform better this week. Realty, Infra, Sugar and Telecom are big no no for the investors at the moment.

Nifty breaches 5000 mark

Nifty breached 5000 mark while Sensex lowered more than 400 points this morning among weak global cues.

Markets all over the world are tumbling; Shanghai exchange dropped 4%, other Asian exchanges are not much better either. It is a global negative sentiment and the worry over European debt crisis. Even the strong stocks like Karur Vysya or Kotak Mahindra have been in red amid extreme risk aversion.

Only stock in green is ABB, driven by the news of 900 per share open offer price by its parent company.

But as I said in my last blog, I believe the Indian market at least is over reacting. European finance ministers are meeting today in Brussels and hopefully they will have something to cheer up the market. The crisis in Europe is big, but I do not think it is devastating.

So I hope the market will bounce back later this week or early next week.

I am not selling anything in this negative market. Temped to buy some more Tulip Telecom or Cairn India or enter into Sterlite; but then decided to wait and watch for some more time, in case these stocks become even more cheaper.

Sensex in red amid fresh European weakness

Sensex lost 271 points on Friday amid news of fresh weakness in Spain and Portugal. The fear is these two countries might be new Greece. This caused widespread weakness in stock markets across the world; Euro hit fresh low against dollar.

I believe this is more of a knee jerk reaction. Firstly, situation in Spain is not as bad as in Greece. And secondly, it is not an intrinsic problem for Indian market either. True, Indian market will react to this kind of global cues, but the impact will not be as sever as those of the European markets.

So, I believe that the market will return to green soon in the coming week, though there will be volatility.

Also, the weak SBI numbers added to Friday's crash. So in near term, probably SBI will remain weak. Other banks like Karur Vysya, Axis Bank or Kotak Mahindra Bank are looking more promising now.

Battered metals got some fresh batterings on Friday. So I think stocks like Sterlite, Sesa Goa, Hindalco, Tata Steel, SAIL will gain 4-5% this week from their closing levels on Friday.

Though I beleive metal will remain a weak sector till the market really gains momentum. So, for retail investors like me, it is wise to avoid them right now. May be there are some scope of making some quick money trading the metals; but that's not my game. I am an investor, not a trader.

I did some cherry picking of Tulip Telecom and Kotak Mahindra Bank during the deep fall on Friday. One can always do that as the broad market looks positive in the medium term. However, one should not get carried away and get over board; there is always a chance of sustaining injury while trying to catch a falling knife.

Sensex corrects in follow through

Sensex tumbled close to 190 points today. It was more of a follow through reaction after yesterday's smart rally which went a bit too far after the Euro stability deal.

So this correction was somewhat expected, though nobody was sure about the extent. I do not tink we will see a continuos fall for the rest of the sessions this week. The market will recover in a day or two. The overall sentiment is positive and underlying factors are strong.

Metals, which saw a smart rally yesterday, lost lot of their gains today. They will come back in next few seconds. They may not see their highs of April. But Stocks like Sterlite, Sesa Goa, Tata Steel and Hindalco should again 4-5% from their current levels.

Among heavyweights, Infosys have been lagging for a while. I think there will be slow up move. SBI, Axis Bank, have some more room left to rise. I am not sure how the Reliance Industries will behave. Though I expect a general up move in long term, the extent of the move is very difficult to predict.

One of my favourites Tulip has started to rise smartly again after being quite for a while. This is a really good stock and has given me good returns over the years. I'll buy some more in dips and might book some profit @1000.

Karur Vysya is continuing its dream run. Just thinking when to book some profit; it is always tricky to find the top, as to find the bottom.

I expect the Nifty to touch 5500 by August, so it will generally be a positive market. It is all about a question of picking the correct stocks at correct entry and exit points.

A welcome rally

Sensex is up more than 300 points (Nifty up more than 100 points) this morning. After a choppy last week, this will provide a respite and will bring back the much needed confidence in the market.

As I mentioned in my last blog, the positive news from Europe and the 430 billion Euro stability package has boosted the market. It never was an intrinsic Indian market problem; all it needed was some positive sentiment from Europe.

Heavyweights like RIL, SBI, Infosys all are quoting high. Also as I mentioned yesterday, low Rupee boosted the tech gains.

Metals have also been into green after being battered heavily for a pst few sessions. This is good news for me as I have exposure to Sesa Goa, SAIL and Sterlite. Hindalco is having a dream rally.

Cairn India is showing a very smart move, I did some averaging and bought more of this stocks on dips last week; but wish I had bought more.

Now it is to bo seen whether the market can hold on to this gain till the end. I believe it will, at least some of it. And this week will be different from the last week.

Can the market provide some respite this week?

After a continuous fall last week, in which Nifty lost close to 300 points, the question in everybody's mind is what will happen on Monday and the week that follows.

It is a difficult question indeed. And though I wouldn't bet my life on that, I do feel that there will be some greens this week.

The main contributor to the weaknesses in global stock markets last week was the Greek worries and the panic regarding the European market and Euro's future. These worries are far from being resolved totally. But the finalisation of the bail out money funded by the European Government is definitely going to have some positive impact.

This may not restore the total market confidence , but it will at least improve it.

For India, a lot depends on how and when the FII react to it. There were some net sells last week and that can always trigger crash in Sensex or Nifty.

Last week's fall was not due to any local problem but was entirely due to the global cues. So any chance of recovery also depends on how other Asian markets and specially the US markets behave. Also, once the political situation becomes clearer in UK, that will send some more fresh positive triggers.

Meanwhile, the Rupee is at 14 months low verses US Doller and this may prove good for the tech stocks.

Sectors like Bank or Pharma, which were looking pretty good and resilient and were dragged only along with the overall market, will probably be the firsts to recover. It might still take a while for sectors like metal, energy or realty.

It is difficult to say if the recovery starts on Monday itself, but I do hope that we will see some green shoots in he course of the week.

Sensex continue to crash following global trend

Sensex shed another 200 points this morning. This was not unexpected though; after the US market witnessed biggest intraday fall yesterday. I fact all markets, be it European or Asian, were in deep red yesterday.

US and European economies were just starting to come out of the recession and then came the greece problem. It just sent alarm and the anticipation of cash flow and lending shortage from European banks. So big foreign investors are being extra cautious and wants to preserve some cash in their hand. They are also sceptical about the stock markets, in general for the near future.

So, here in India also we are seeing some sell offs and domestic players are also being cautious. It is a cascading effect...one fall is just triggering more panic which in turn triggers more sell offs. This is to continue for a while, till the European market, currency and banks credit rates are adjusted and understood fully.

I do not believe the correction in Indian market will be as deep or as long as some of the European markets or US market. It will possibly be the quickest to come back. Sensex will not go back to the recession days, but it will correct nevertheless.

I'll probably wait till the market reaches the bottom and may cherry pick some good stocks in bank, pharma or energy sectors, when the price become attractive.

I am not planning to sell anything in this choppy market.

Another volatile day...possibly

Sensex is down by about 100 points in the morning trade. However, I think it is going to be a volatile day and it is hard to predict where it will close at the end of the day.

Metal continues to get battered. The good thing is some fundamentally good stocks like Sesa Goa and Sterlite looks attractive now.

This negative market is pulling many other stocks down. Like Cairn India, Lupin. May be one can consider entering into these stocks. Or may be better to wait to see them bottoming out.

Among banking stocks, Karur Vysya had been pretty volatile, already swinged from 456 to 496. I wish I could buy some at 456.

But these stocks are fundamentally good and going down mainly because of the general negativity in the market.

It is going to be a volatile day, and if you are lucky and remain vigil can make some money from day trading.

Metal gets heavy battering

After slipping 140 point yesterday, the Sensex is down close to 45 points again till now today. Though the market is pretty volatile today. So it is difficult to say where it will eventually close today.

But one thing is for sure, metal is getting heavy battering. Sesa Goa has breached 400 and is trading at around 390 amid Chinese weakness. I have large exposure in this stock, but I am not worried too much. It will come back again. So not a problem if you are aan investor and not a Trader. I'll buy some more when it reaches the bottom.

Other stocks like Hindalco, Sterlite Induatries, all have slipped a lot in the past two days.

Banks are doing well even amid this correcting market. Axis Bank, PNB, SBI are doing good. Karur Vysya is poised for new high again. I just love this stock. I think the banks will have even better run once this correction and negativity is over.

Almost all banks are doing good. And so is pharma. I like Glenmark; but now it is trading close to 52 weeks high and difficult to enter. I'll wait for the dips. Cipla and Aarti Drugs also looking good.

Another sector that is getting battering is cement. I do not have too much exposure to this. Have some Ultratech cement, which has been slipping continuously. I'll just hold and wait for it to come back.